Gauß
The canonical account would inevitably begin with Gauss. The Gaussian distribution (or the normal distribution, depending on your academic upbringing) is undeniable the most well-investigated probability distribution in human history. We don't need to go into all the details and properties of it, but it's good to be reminded of a number of facts regarding how the normal distribution is related to some other entities:
- It is closely related to the phenomenon of diffusion;
- The Central Limit Theorem says that (under some technical conditions) the sum of many i.i.d. random variables would converge to a normal distribution;
- Brownian motion is mathematically described by Wiener process, which follows a Gaussian distribution.
Our Checklist
Before proceeding further, let's compile a checklist that we will re-visit multiple times in this series:
Candidate: Brownian motion
- Markovian
- "Tractable"(-ish, depending on how you transform it)
- Excess kurtosis = 0
- Market completeness (if number of hedging instruments >= number of sources of randomness)
- A Markov process has no memory. It doesn't matter if the market went up 20%, up 3%, down 3%, or down 20% yesterday. Today's probability of movement is not affected in any way.
- "Tractable" refers to a closed-form expression for the asset price process itself, or the price of derivatives with the asset as underlying.
- Excess kurtosis is a measure of "tail effect"
- Market completeness means a contingent claim can be fully hedged
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